Despite the widespread feelings of gloom and doom about the global recession, there are some positive signs of economic recovery that are beginning to appear.

Brian Wesbury and Robert Stein describe the signs of the coming recovery as they see them and note that one has to be patient with monetary policy.

Economic growth at the end of 2008 was slightly deceptive. Real gross domestic product fell at a 3.8% annual rate, a smaller decline than the consensus expected.

Other key commodity prices, such as copper, nickel and aluminum, have stabilized after bottoming in November. If "Great Depression II" were truly upon us, these commodities would not have found a bottom. Back in the summer, commodity prices signaled the slowdown in the economy. Recent price activity suggests that this nosedive is over.

Monetary policy always wins and things are no different this time. Monetary policy is extremely loose, and the seismic drums are scratching away. Some early warning signals suggest that despite real GDP weakness, an economic recovery should start taking hold by mid-year.

Rachel Beck notes that Credit market shows small signs of easing.

In a promising turn that could bolster the economy, companies are selling bonds at a pace not seen since last spring. At the same time, companies are finding it easier to issue commercial paper, the short-term loans necessary for quick access to cash.

Global sales of new corporate debt jumped to $82 billion last week, the highest since $103 billion last May and nearly double the level seen right before the credit crisis intensified in September.

Although it is often called a global recession it should be noted that China and India have seen only a slowdown in their recent growth.  Premier Wen Jiabao of China in Davos, Switzerland. said that among early signs of recovery by the Chinese economy is a 20 percent rise in domestic consumption at the start of the Chinese Lunar New Year

However unless there is a global recovery, India and China cannot return to their more recent growth rates according to the IMF.

Asian nations will need a recovery in the global economy before the region can exit a slowdown as its trade and financial linkages have increased with the rest of the world.  A rapid recovery in Asia once the world economy regains its footing is possible.

Of course these projections may well be influenced by whether the economists are optimistic or pessimistic, or bullish or bearish as is said in the trade.  If you are looking for a reason to stay slightly gloomy than perhaps these words from a bearish economist commenting on one of the stronger economies, Canada, may keep you in that frame of mind.

David Wolf, the Canadian economist and strategist at Merrill Lynch, feels that the Stimulus spending is not enough to spark a Canadian recovery. 

A large part of the government’s projected $34-billion deficit for fiscal 2009 (2.2% of GDP) was a result of the normal deterioration in revenues during a recession. The cost of new initiatives, about $18-billion,  is "nearly identical" to the measures put in place in the 2007 budget.

The continued deterioration in economic data has caused him to increase his outlook for economic contraction for Canada to 1.7% for 2009 from his prediction of a 1.2% decline in December.

He does however acknowledge that there are others who expect a short recession and a sharp rebound

Nevertheless after balancing all these differing views, I believe that one can be slightly less gloomy about how long and how deep the global recession will be.

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